Nasdaq Turns Positive as VIX Falls Below 20, but Dow Remains 1% Lower

Nasdaq Turns Positive as VIX Falls Below 20, but Dow Remains 1% Lower

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US markets became even more divided during Friday's second trading hour. The Nasdaq Composite turned 0.28% higher, supported by a 1.43% semiconductor rebound, while the Dow remained 1.01% lower and the equal-weight S&P 500 ETF was down 0.60%.

At the same time, the VIX fell back below 20 after reaching 20.19 earlier, but December WTI crude stayed above $102 and the US 10-year yield held just under 5%. The combination points to a technology-led stabilisation inside a still-weak broader market.

This follows our US opening analysis, which identified semiconductor strength and weak equal-weight breadth as the day's main divergence.

Intraday snapshot: US cash indices and ETFs were sampled around 15:01 UTC on 23 October 2026. VIX, European indices and the US 10-year yield were sampled around 14:46 UTC; futures and commodities around 14:51 UTC; Bitcoin around 15:01 UTC. Quotes are delayed and may differ from executable prices.

One-hour change in the US signal

Market	Latest delayed price	Daily change	Opening-hour comparison
Nasdaq Composite	26,081.60	+0.28%	turned positive from -0.08%
S&P 500	7,652.10	-0.15%	recovered from -0.43%
Dow Jones	52,333.83	-1.01%	remained near its opening loss
Russell 2000	2,765.95	-0.65%	modest recovery, still lower
S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF	$216.90	-0.60%	improved slightly, still weak
Semiconductor ETF	$530.82	+1.43%	extended its rebound
Technology sector ETF	$184.04	+0.93%	strengthened materially
VIX spot index	19.55	+2.73%	fell from 20.19
WTI futures, Dec 2026	$102.33	+2.88%	held above $102
Gold futures, Dec 2026	$4,017.40	-1.06%	weakened from $4,035
Bitcoin spot	$81,637	+0.40%	below the earlier $81,905 sample
US 10-year yield	4.990%	+3.7 bp	remained near 5%

Technology stabilises while breadth stays weak

The Nasdaq's move into positive territory is important after Thursday's 2.6% decline, but it does not describe the whole market. The Dow was still down more than 530 points, the Russell 2000 remained 0.65% lower and the equal-weight S&P 500 ETF was down 0.60%.

Associated Press reported around 10:05 a.m. New York time that four out of every five S&P 500 constituents were lower. It also highlighted gains in Micron and Nvidia that offset some broader pressure. The later delayed sample shows that technology continued to improve after that report.

The semiconductor ETF rose 1.43% to $530.82, moving above the $530 confirmation level identified one hour earlier. AMD gained 2.55%, Broadcom 1.12% and Nvidia 0.34% in the same delayed snapshot. The technology sector ETF's 0.93% gain gave the Nasdaq a concentrated source of support.

The test now is persistence. Holding above $530 would strengthen the semiconductor recovery, while a return below $523.35, Thursday's ETF close, would invalidate it.

VIX below 20 improves the tone, but does not confirm a broad recovery

The VIX fell from 20.19 to 19.55 between the hourly samples. That removed the immediate “hold above 20” confirmation and is consistent with the S&P 500 recovery from a 0.43% loss to only 0.15% lower.

Cboe defines VIX as an options-based estimate of expected S&P 500 volatility. Its fall does not predict that equities must rise, just as the earlier move above 20 did not guarantee a decline.

For a broader stabilisation signal, VIX would need to stay below 19.5 while the equal-weight S&P 500 and Russell 2000 recover their previous closes. That has not happened yet.

Oil and yields continue to pressure non-technology shares

December WTI held near $102.33, up 2.88% from its reference. It had eased slightly from $102.55 but remained above both the $102 breakout area and the pre-open $101.23 reading.

Associated Press linked the broader equity pressure to rising oil and reported that crude was at its highest level since March amid uncertainty over the Iran conflict. Higher energy costs can weigh on transport, industrial and consumer-sensitive businesses, which is consistent with the Dow and equal-weight underperformance. This remains an interpretation, not proof of a single cause.

The US 10-year yield was 4.990%, close to the 5% psychological threshold. The combination of near-5% long-term yields and oil above $102 makes the environment less supportive for a broad valuation expansion even while chips rebound.

WTI must hold above $102 to preserve the breakout. A move through $103 would extend it; a break back below $101.20 would invalidate the opening-hour advance.

US business activity remains strong but eases at the margin

The flash US services PMI printed at 57.9, just below the 58.0 consensus and September's 58.8, according to the 13:45 UTC release reported by InvestingLive. A reading above 50 still indicates expansion.

The data therefore did not present a simple recession signal. Instead, it showed strong activity with slightly slower momentum. That may help explain why Treasury yields stayed near 5% even as technology shares recovered.

Traders should avoid treating one survey as a complete verdict on growth or inflation. The market response across yields, oil and equity breadth carries more information than the headline alone.

Gold loses ground while Bitcoin stays inside its range

December gold fell 1.06% to $4,017.40, moving closer to the $4,000 area. Gold's weakness alongside higher oil and yields suggests it is not acting as a straightforward risk-off hedge in this session. A break below $4,000 would extend the bearish signal; reclaiming $4,060 would invalidate it.

Bitcoin traded near $81,637, still 0.40% above its daily reference but below the earlier $81,905 sample. It remained between $81,000 support and $82,000 resistance, offering no confirmed breakout.

The Money Man View: next two to five hours

Base case: technology and semiconductors remain stronger than the rest of the market, allowing Nasdaq to hold near positive territory while Dow, small caps and equal-weight shares lag. WTI above $102 and the 10-year yield near 5% keep broad recovery difficult.

Bullish stabilisation: Nasdaq holds above 26,050, semiconductor ETF stays above $530, S&P 500 reclaims 7,663 and VIX falls below 19.25. Confirmation would improve if equal-weight shares and Russell 2000 turn positive.

Bearish broadening: Dow loses 52,250, S&P 500 breaks 7,620 and Nasdaq falls back below 26,000 while VIX reclaims 20.5. WTI above $103 and the 10-year yield above 5% would strengthen that case.

What invalidates the technology-led stabilisation view: a semiconductor ETF move below $523.35 and Nasdaq below 25,950 would show that the rebound failed. Conversely, a positive equal-weight market with Dow above 52,600 would invalidate the view that the recovery remains narrow.

Levels to monitor

• Nasdaq Composite: 26,050 hold; 26,150 extension; 26,000 failure.
• Semiconductor ETF: $530 confirmation; $523.35 invalidation.
• S&P 500: 7,663 previous close; 7,620 support.
• Dow: 52,250 support; 52,600 recovery.
• Equal-weight S&P 500 ETF: $218.22 previous close.
• VIX: 19.5 immediate pivot; 20 and 20.5 renewed stress.
• WTI December futures: $102 hold; $103 extension; $101.20 invalidation.
• Gold: $4,000 support; $4,060 recovery.
• Bitcoin: $81,000 support; $82,000 breakout.

Sources and methodology

Market breadth, oil context and the earlier US reading were checked against the updated Associated Press market report. US services PMI was checked against the 13:45 UTC release report. VIX interpretation follows Cboe's methodology overview.

Prices were sampled from delayed Yahoo Finance chart and quote feeds. Percentage changes use the provider's latest session reference or previous cash close.

This market analysis was prepared with AI-assisted research and writing under The Money Man editorial workflow. It is educational information, not personalised investment advice. Intraday divergence can reverse quickly, delayed quotes may differ from executable prices and no scenario guarantees a return.