Oil Crack Spread: Crude, Petrol, Diesel ও Refining Margin

Oil Crack Spread: Crude, Petrol, Diesel ও Refining Margin

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Learning objective

Oil crack spread কী measure করে, simplified 3:2:1 spread কীভাবে calculate করবেন, product tightness-কে crude-price strength থেকে আলাদা করবেন এবং result কেন actual refinery profit নয় বরং indicator—এই tutorial-এ তা শিখুন।

Refinery crude oil buy করে petrol, diesel, jet fuel, liquefied gas ও other product-এ convert করে। Crack spread selected refined product-এর market value-এর সঙ্গে crude input cost compare করে।

“Cracking” refining process large hydrocarbon molecule-কে smaller product-এ break করে। Trader refining economics monitor এবং crude ও product price relationship hedge করতে crack spread use করেন।

Step 1: single-product crack দিয়ে শুরু করুন

Basic petrol crack:

Petrol crack = wholesale petrol price per barrel − crude price per barrel

US RBOB petrol futures-এর মতো petroleum product commonly dollars per gallon-এ quoted। Crude oil dollars per barrel-এ quoted। Subtract করার আগে unit convert করুন:

Product price per barrel = product price per gallon × 42

RBOB $2.40 per gallon হলে:

$2.40 × 42 = $100.80 per barrel

Chosen crude benchmark $80 per barrel হলে simplified petrol crack:

$100.80 − $80.00 = $20.80 per barrel

Result gross price difference। এটি refinery fuel, labour, maintenance, transport, financing বা compliance cost deduct করে না।

Step 2: 3:2:1 crack spread calculate করুন

Common 3:2:1 approximation assume করে three barrels crude থেকে two barrels petrol ও one barrel distillate produce হয়।

3:2:1 crack per barrel of crude = [(2 × petrol value per barrel) + distillate value per barrel − (3 × crude price per barrel)] ÷ 3

US Energy Information Administration ratio-টিকে typical US refinery output-এর simplified representation হিসেবে describe করে। Actual yield refinery, crude quality, operating configuration ও product specification অনুযায়ী vary করে।

Worked example

Same-month market price ধরুন:

• crude oil: $80.00 per barrel;
• RBOB petrol: $2.40 per gallon;
• ULSD/distillate: $2.70 per gallon।

First product price convert করুন:

• petrol: $2.40 × 42 = $100.80 per barrel;
• distillate: $2.70 × 42 = $113.40 per barrel।

Three barrels crude থেকে product value:

(2 × $100.80) + $113.40 = $315.00

Crude input subtract করুন:

$315.00 − (3 × $80.00) = $75.00

Three barrels দিয়ে divide করুন:

$75.00 ÷ 3 = $25.00 per barrel

Simplified 3:2:1 crack other cost ও revenue-এর আগে $25 per barrel of crude।

Both product price unchanged রেখে crude $90 হলে:

[$315.00 − (3 × $90.00)] ÷ 3 = $15.00 per barrel

Crude more expensive হলেও crack narrow করে। Rising oil price automatically stronger refinery economics নয়।

Step 3: location, quality ও month match করুন

Useful crack plausible refining system represent করা price compare করে। Check করুন:

• location: New York Harbor, US Gulf Coast, Northwest Europe বা Singapore;
• crude benchmark: WTI, Brent, Light Louisiana Sweet বা another grade;
• product: RBOB petrol, ULSD, gasoil বা jet fuel;
• contract month: all leg aligned delivery period represent করবে;
• currency ও unit: dollars per barrel, dollars per gallon বা tonnes;
• specification: sulphur, vapour pressure ও other quality rule।

Different-location crude contract থেকে Gulf Coast petrol subtract করলে transport ও basis effect ঢুকতে পারে। Front-month petrol-এর সঙ্গে next-month crude compare করলে seasonality ও calendar spread calculation-এ mix হয়।

Step 4: crack spread ও accounting margin আলাদা করুন

Crack spread refinery economics-এর অনেক কিছু omit করে। Actual profitability depend করতে পারে:

• crude quality ও price differential;
• refinery-used energy;
• labour ও maintenance;
• catalyst ও chemical cost;
• transport, storage ও insurance;
• petrol ও distillate-এর বাইরে product yield;
• carbon, renewable-fuel ও environmental compliance;
• downtime ও utilisation rate;
• hedge, inventory valuation ও foreign exchange;
• depreciation, interest ও tax।

High headline crack থাকলেও outage বা unusually high operating/compliance cost হলে refinery weak earnings report করতে পারে।

Step 5: spread কী widen করে বুঝুন

Product price crude-এর চেয়ে faster rise করলে বা crude product-এর চেয়ে faster fall করলে crack widen করতে পারে।

Potential driver:

• refinery outage ও maintenance;
• low petrol বা distillate inventory;
• stronger driving, freight, aviation বা heating demand;
• product-export demand;
• pipeline, port বা shipping constraint;
• seasonal fuel-specification change;
• refining capacity-affecting sanction বা disruption;
• refinery region-এর storm risk;
• crude quality discount-এর sudden change।

EIA September 2026-এ বলেছে tight global petrol supply ও refining-activity disruption US product crack spread elevate করেছে। Affected region large diesel ও jet fuel volume supply করায় distillate crack petrol crack-এর চেয়ে stronger ছিল।

এই example দেখায় crude headline থেকে product side separately analyse করতে হয়।

Step 6: spread কী narrow করে বুঝুন

Spread narrow করতে পারে যখন:

• crude rally করে but product price lag করে;
• refinery maintenance থেকে return করে;
• fuel demand disappoint করে;
• product inventory build হয়;
• export weak হয়;
• seasonal specification cheaper হয়;
• new refining capacity supply increase করে;
• lower economic activity freight বা industrial fuel demand reduce করে।

Selected crude cost-এর নিচে product value fall করলে single-product crack temporarily negative হতে পারে। Refinery immediately shut করবে এমন নয়, কারণ multiple product produce করে, contractual commitment থাকে এবং start-up/shutdown cost আছে।

Step 7: petrol ও distillate separately পড়ুন

3:2:1 blend divergence hide করতে পারে।

Petrol demand often driving-season pattern follow করে। US RBOB specification seasonally change হয়। Distillate demand freight, industry, agriculture ও heating-এর সঙ্গে linked। Jet fuel-এর own aviation cycle আছে।

At least track করুন:

• petrol crack;
• distillate crack;
• combined 3:2:1 crack;
• crude calendar spread;
• regional product inventory;
• refinery utilisation ও outage news।

Weak petrol crack-এর সঙ্গে strong distillate crack, both product broad strength-এর চেয়ে different story বলে।

Step 8: hedge structure বুঝুন

Theoretical 3:2:1 futures hedge combine করে:

• long বা short three crude units;
• opposite exposure in two petrol units;
• opposite exposure in one distillate unit।

Real contract-এর unit size different। CME RBOB contract 42,000 gallons, equal to 1,000 barrels represent করে। Trader contract quantity, month ও sign correctly align করবেন।

Execution several risk তৈরি করে:

• one leg another-এর আগে fill হয়;
• volatility rise করলে margin change হয়;
• refinery physical crude/product থেকে basis different হয়;
• contract expiry ও delivery rule different হয়;
• operational yield exactly 3:2:1 নয়;
• futures gain ও physical cash flow different time-এ settle হয়।

এটি specialised commercial hedge, simple directional oil trade নয়।

Step 9: crack-কে automatic crude signal হিসেবে use করবেন না

Widening crack refinery-কে more crude process করতে encourage করতে পারে, যা crude demand support করতে পারে। কিন্তু relationship mechanical নয়। Maintenance, capacity limit, inventory, export economics ও product demand intervene করে।

Likewise, narrow crack abundant crude নয়, weak product reflect করতে পারে। কোন leg move করেছে এবং কেন analyse করুন।

Common mistakes

• Per-barrel crude price থেকে per-gallon product price subtract করা।
• 42 incorrectly use করা বা final division by three ভুলে যাওয়া।
• Contract month বা location mix করা।
• Crack-কে refinery net profit বলা।
• Every refinery 3:2:1 yield produce করে assume করা।
• Other product, operating cost ও compliance expense ignore করা।
• Combined crack দেখে petrol/distillate divergence miss করা।
• Widening crack-কে crude-এর guaranteed bullish evidence ভাবা।
• Contract size, margin ও legging risk ignore করা।
• Spot ও futures price label ছাড়া compare করা।

Practical checklist

• Refinery region ও crude benchmark choose করুন।
• Crude ও product delivery month match করুন।
• Every product quote dollars per barrel-এ convert করুন।
• Single-product ও 3:2:1 crack separately calculate করুন।
• কোন leg move cause করেছে identify করুন।
• Inventory, outage, utilisation ও seasonal specification check করুন।
• Gross price spread ও operating profit আলাদা করুন।
• Basis, contract size, expiry ও margin rule review করুন।
• Price spot, futures, live নাকি settlement state করুন।
• কোন evidence interpretation invalidate করবে define করুন।

Sources

• US EIA: 3:2:1 crack-spread calculation
• US EIA: What drives product prices and crack spreads
• US EIA: Elevated crack spreads and petrol prices in 2026
• CME Group: RBOB petrol futures contract overview

এই tutorial The Money Man editorial workflow-এর অধীনে AI-assisted research ও writing দিয়ে তৈরি। এটি educational information, personalised investment advice বা futures-trading recommendation নয়। Worked price ও margin hypothetical এবং real-world cost exclude করে।