
Trading Overconfidence: Use Calibration and Size Limits Before Risk Grows
Measure whether stated confidence matches results, control position size after winning streaks and stop unsupported conviction from increasing risk.
Stocks, gold, oil and Bitcoin perspectives. Read each article’s date: historical analysis is not a current trading signal.

Measure whether stated confidence matches results, control position size after winning streaks and stop unsupported conviction from increasing risk.

Calculate a 3:2:1 crack spread and understand how crude, petrol and distillate prices connect to refinery margins without confusing the spread with net profit.

Calculate curve spreads, distinguish bull and bear steepeners from flatteners, and interpret inversion without treating it as a precise recession timer.

Learn how actual data, consensus forecasts, revisions and market positioning combine to produce unexpected reactions across stocks, bonds and gold.

Bitcoin recovered above $80,000 while Friday oil, yields and weak equity breadth set up a high-risk week of Fed, ECB and Bank of Japan decisions.

Distinguish new-share issuance from shareholder sales, calculate dilution and interpret follow-on, shelf and at-the-market equity programmes.