Bitcoin Below $77,700: Daily Breakdown and the Recovery Test
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Executive Summary
- ✦BTC traded at $77,345.68 on Coinbase at 03:02:31 UTC on 30 October.
- ✦Thursday closed at $77,780.33, down 4.27% and below the prior recovery boundary.
- ✦Watch $77,699–$77,780.33 for a reclaim; closing confirmation and a later retest matter.
- ✦The US Employment Cost Index is scheduled for 18:30 Bangladesh time today.
Bitcoin’s daily structure has weakened further. Thursday closed below the recovery boundary in our previous plan, and Friday’s early trading is below Thursday’s low. A bounce is still possible, but reclaiming lost ground matters more than assuming a sharp fall has made the asset cheap.
Coinbase Exchange BTC-USD spot last traded at $77,345.68 at 03:02:31 UTC on 30 October 2026 — 09:02:31 in Bangladesh and 03:02:31 GMT in London. This is a timestamped last trade from a live exchange feed, not a continuously updating or guaranteed executable quote. It is approximately 0.56% below Thursday’s close. Coinbase ticker is the primary source; Yahoo Finance showed $77,340.46 at 03:02:25 UTC as an approximate cross-check. Venue and calculation differences are normal.
The daily close now confirms lost ground
Our 29 October plan used $80,270.68 as the key recovery boundary. Thursday closed at $77,780.33, down approximately 4.27% from Wednesday’s $81,249.31 close. It also closed below the previously identified $79,365.93 and $79,255.00 downside references.
The bearish daily-close condition has therefore occurred. The further requirement of a later failed reclaim still needs to be evaluated; we are not claiming an executed trade, a completed entry sequence or a profit. The earlier bullish repair condition did not occur.
| Coinbase spot reference | USD per BTC | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Friday last trade | $77,345.68 | 03:02:31 UTC snapshot |
| Thursday 29 October close | $77,780.33 | Latest completed UTC close |
| Thursday low | $77,699.00 | First nearby reclaim test |
| Thursday high | $81,890.00 | Completed-day upper reference |
| Monday 26 October low | $79,255.00 | Broken historical reference overhead |
| Wednesday 28 October low | $80,270.68 | Previous recovery boundary |
| Friday sampled low | $76,301.02 | Provisional, not a completed daily low |
Source: Coinbase daily candles. All figures are US dollars per bitcoin in the spot market. Daily candles run from 00:00 to 00:00 UTC, equivalent to 06:00 to 06:00 in Bangladesh. Friday’s sampled high was $78,083.81; both its extremes can change. Ticker and candle endpoints refresh separately.
Inflation is known; the wage-cost report is next
Yesterday’s BEA release put September PCE inflation at 0.5% month on month and 3.6% year on year. Excluding food and energy, the figures were 0.3% and 3.1%. These are published inflation readings, not forecasts or Bitcoin returns.
The BLS calendar schedules the third-quarter Employment Cost Index for today, 30 October, at 08:30 US Eastern time: 12:30 UTC / 12:30 GMT in London / 18:30 in Bangladesh. It was still ahead at our price snapshot. No result or consensus estimate is assumed here.
Our interpretation is that wage-cost evidence could influence expectations about persistent inflation and interest rates, which can matter for speculative assets. That is a risk channel, not proof that macro data caused the whole Bitcoin decline. The price response and whether it lasts are separate observations.
The Money Man View: next one to three UTC sessions
Base case — damaged structure. Below $77,699.00–$77,780.33, price is beneath Thursday’s low and close. A rebound inside this area is only an initial repair test. The round $77,700 label is shorthand for the observed low, not an independently established support level.
Bullish repair. A daily close above $77,780.33, followed by a later retest that holds, would improve the immediate recovery case. $79,255.00 is the next highlighted broken historical level, with $80,270.68 needed for a more substantial repair of the prior setup. A later close below $77,699.00 would weaken this bullish interpretation. These are checkpoints, not promised targets.
Bearish continuation. A daily close below $77,699.00, followed by a failed reclaim, would strengthen the downside case. Friday’s $76,301.02 sampled low is a provisional observation to reassess after the session. The same exchange series contains an older 18 September low at $76,205.46, but its age means it should not be assumed to provide strong support. A sustained recovery above $77,780.33 would weaken the immediate bearish case.
Wait condition. If the wage-cost release produces repeated crossings of Thursday’s low, the daily setup remains unsettled. Waiting for a completed close avoids treating every intraday breach as confirmation. It does not eliminate risk.
The next full daily checkpoint is 00:00 UTC on 31 October / 06:00 Bangladesh / 00:00 GMT in London, after today’s scheduled US data. Recheck Friday’s final range rather than treating this snapshot as fixed. Spot, perpetual futures and Bitcoin funds have different leverage, costs and trading hours. Protective orders may slip; see our bracket-order and OCO guide. Investors should assess portfolio concentration separately from this short-term setup.
The Money Man uses AI-assisted research and writing. General analysis and education, not personalised investment advice. Scenarios can fail and capital is at risk. Article prices do not update automatically. The cover is an AI-generated conceptual illustration, not a chart, event photograph or forecast.